FHB
First Hawaiian, Inc.
$25.82
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.2% below fair value
You pay
$25.82
Bear
$26.46
Fair
$39.85
Bull
$47.89
Bear
$26.46
+2.5%
ROTCE 11.7% → 1.82x TBV
Fair
$39.85
+54.3%
ROTCE 15.6% → 2.74x TBV
Bull
$47.89
+85.5%
ROTCE 18.0% → 3.29x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
15.6%
8.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.78x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$30.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
With ROTCE of 15.6% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.74x on $14.54 tangible book, implying $39.85 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.25 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly