FG
F&G Annuities & Life, Inc.
$19.57
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 73.3% below fair value
You pay
$19.57
Bear
$51.24
Fair
$73.20
Bull
$95.16
Bear
$51.24
+161.8%
ROTCE 4.1% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$73.20
+274.0%
ROTCE 5.5% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$95.16
+386.3%
ROTCE 6.3% → 0.32x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
5.5%
11.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.5%) vs. cost of equity (11.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.54x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
205%
Summary
With ROTCE of 5.5% vs. 11.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $36.26 tangible book, implying $73.20 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.5%) is below the minimum investors require (11.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 205% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly