FFIC
Flushing Financial Corporation
$15.47
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.2% above fair value
You pay
$15.47
Bear
$10.19
Fair
$14.56
Bull
$18.93
Bear
$10.19
-34.1%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$14.56
-5.9%
ROTCE 2.7% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$18.93
+22.4%
ROTCE 3.1% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
2.7%
8.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (2.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.74x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$16.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
With ROTCE of 2.7% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $20.87 tangible book, implying $14.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $10.59.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (2.7%) is below the minimum investors require (8.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.59 (27% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly