FDX
FedEx Corporation
$394.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 184.8% above fair value
You pay
$394.20
Bear
$40.99
Fair
$138.41
Bull
$225.06
Bear
$40.99
-89.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$138.41
-64.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$225.06
-42.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
43.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $366.25 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.41 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $366.25 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions