FDX
FedEx Corporation
$313.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 72.3% above fair value
You pay
$313.66
Bear
$182.01
Fair
$182.01
Bull
$205.99
Bear
$182.01
-42.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$182.01
-42.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$205.99
-34.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
20.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.1%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $323.94 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $182.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $323.94 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions