FDX
FedEx Corporation
$298.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 120.1% above fair value
You pay
$298.23
Bear
$135.49
Fair
$135.49
Bull
$152.44
Bear
$135.49
-54.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$135.49
-54.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$152.44
-48.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
18.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.8%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$307.55
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $135.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $307.55 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions