FCPT
Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
$25.06
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.0% below fair value
You pay
$25.06
Bear
$23.17
Fair
$28.49
Bull
$33.83
Bear
$23.17
-7.6%
$1.57 FFO × 16x
Fair
$28.49
+13.7%
$1.57 FFO × 20x
Bull
$33.83
+35.0%
$1.57 FFO × 23x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.57) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.49 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify