FCPT
Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
$21.25
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.2% below fair value
You pay
$21.25
Bear
$19.49
Fair
$24.19
Bull
$28.89
Bear
$19.49
-8.3%
$1.57 FFO × 16x
Fair
$24.19
+13.8%
$1.57 FFO × 20x
Bull
$28.89
+36.0%
$1.57 FFO × 23x
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.57) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$28.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
At $1.57 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $24.19 per share. Dividend yield: 2.4%. DDM cross-check: $9.35.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.35 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify