FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares, Inc.
$1,991.55
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.4% below fair value
You pay
$1,991.55
Bear
$1,707.30
Fair
$2,904.29
Bull
$3,622.48
Bear
$1,707.30
-14.3%
ROTCE 7.6% → 0.96x TBV
Fair
$2,904.29
+45.8%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.64x TBV
Bull
$3,622.48
+81.9%
ROTCE 11.7% → 2.05x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.06x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $2234.20 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2904.29 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $2234.20 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly