FCN
FTI Consulting, Inc.
$140.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.4% above fair value
You pay
$140.50
Bear
$66.21
Fair
$90.44
Bull
$113.62
Bear
$66.21
-52.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$90.44
-35.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$113.62
-19.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
29.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.3%
vs 9.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$174.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $90.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $174.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions