FCN
FTI Consulting, Inc.
$162.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 75.0% above fair value
You pay
$162.55
Bear
$67.54
Fair
$92.87
Bull
$117.10
Bear
$67.54
-58.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$92.87
-42.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$117.10
-28.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
41.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.7%
vs 9.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $174.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $174.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions