FBP
First BanCorp.
$28.51
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.2% below fair value
You pay
$28.51
Bear
$25.49
Fair
$37.59
Bull
$44.85
Bear
$25.49
-10.6%
ROTCE 13.4% → 2.02x TBV
Fair
$37.59
+31.9%
ROTCE 17.9% → 2.98x TBV
Bull
$44.85
+57.3%
ROTCE 20.6% → 3.56x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
17.9%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (17.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.26x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
With ROTCE of 17.9% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.98x on $12.61 tangible book, implying $37.59 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 25% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly