FBNC
First Bancorp
$59.17
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 78.9% above fair value
You pay
$59.17
Bear
$23.15
Fair
$33.07
Bull
$42.99
Bear
$23.15
-60.9%
ROTCE 7.2% → 0.64x TBV
Fair
$33.07
-44.1%
ROTCE 9.6% → 1.12x TBV
Bull
$42.99
-27.3%
ROTCE 11.0% → 1.40x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.6%
9.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.6%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.11x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$68.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.6% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.12x on $27.99 tangible book, implying $33.07 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.86.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.86 (58% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly