FBK
FB Financial Corporation
$59.65
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.3% above fair value
You pay
$59.65
Bear
$26.04
Fair
$37.20
Bull
$48.36
Bear
$26.04
-56.3%
ROTCE 6.5% → 0.45x TBV
Fair
$37.20
-37.6%
ROTCE 8.7% → 0.84x TBV
Bull
$48.36
-18.9%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.08x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.17x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.20 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.7%) is below the minimum investors require (9.5%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly