FBK
FB Financial Corporation
$52.10
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 84.3% above fair value
You pay
$52.10
Bear
$19.79
Fair
$28.27
Bull
$36.75
Bear
$19.79
-62.0%
ROTCE 6.5% → 0.44x TBV
Fair
$28.27
-45.7%
ROTCE 8.7% → 0.82x TBV
Bull
$36.75
-29.5%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.05x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.7%
9.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.84x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$63.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.7% vs. 9.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.82x on $28.35 tangible book, implying $28.27 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.7%) is below the minimum investors require (9.7%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.67 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly