FBK
FB Financial Corporation
$52.68
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.9% above fair value
You pay
$52.68
Bear
$24.93
Fair
$35.62
Bull
$46.30
Bear
$24.93
-52.7%
ROTCE 6.5% → 0.44x TBV
Fair
$35.62
-32.4%
ROTCE 8.7% → 0.82x TBV
Bull
$46.30
-12.1%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.05x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.92x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.62 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.7%) is below the minimum investors require (9.6%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly