FAST
Fastenal Company
$49.32
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 201.7% above fair value
You pay
$49.32
Bear
$13.08
Fair
$16.35
Bull
$19.62
Bear
$13.08
-73.5%
$1.09 × 12x P/E
Fair
$16.35
-66.8%
$1.09 × 15x P/E
Bull
$19.62
-60.2%
$1.09 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.09$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
45.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$49.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.09, the base-case value is $16.35 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 88% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples