FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
$204.97
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 399.5% above fair value
You pay
$204.97
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$41.03
Bull
$102.27
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $1675M × 8x
Fair
$41.03
-80.0%
FCF $2392M × 11x
Bull
$102.27
-50.1%
FCF $3110M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$219.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $41.03 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $102.27 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $219.08 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential