EYE
National Vision Holdings, Inc.
$17.13
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 189.4% above fair value
You pay
$17.13
Bear
$5.18
Fair
$5.92
Bull
$6.66
Bear
$5.18
-69.8%
$0.37 × 14x P/E
Fair
$5.92
-65.4%
$0.37 × 16x P/E
Bull
$6.66
-61.1%
$0.37 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
46.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$27.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.37, the base-case value is $5.92 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples