EYE
National Vision Holdings, Inc.
$17.13
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 24.6% above fair value
You pay
$17.13
Bear
$12.03
Fair
$13.75
Bull
$15.47
Bear
$12.03
-29.8%
$0.59 × 14x P/E
Fair
$13.75
-19.7%
$0.59 × 16x P/E
Bull
$15.47
-9.7%
$0.59 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.75 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 59%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples