EXR
Extra Space Storage Inc.
$147.26
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.8% below fair value
You pay
$147.26
Bear
$161.29
Fair
$195.74
Bull
$230.20
Bear
$161.29
+9.5%
$8.00 FFO × 23x
Fair
$195.74
+32.9%
$8.00 FFO × 29x
Bull
$230.20
+56.3%
$8.00 FFO × 34x
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($8.00) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
18.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$158.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
At $8.00 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $195.74 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $118.92.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $118.92 (39% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify