EXR
Extra Space Storage Inc.
$132.91
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.3% below fair value
You pay
$132.91
Bear
$156.98
Fair
$190.68
Bull
$224.37
Bear
$156.98
+18.1%
$8.00 FFO × 23x
Fair
$190.68
+43.5%
$8.00 FFO × 29x
Bull
$224.37
+68.8%
$8.00 FFO × 34x
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($8.00) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
16.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$158.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
At $8.00 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $190.68 per share. Dividend yield: 4.9%. DDM cross-check: $102.04.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $102.04 (46% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify