EXPO
Exponent, Inc.
$57.77
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.1% above fair value
You pay
$57.77
Bear
$33.47
Fair
$41.84
Bull
$50.21
Bear
$33.47
-42.1%
$2.07 × 12x P/E
Fair
$41.84
-27.6%
$2.07 × 15x P/E
Bull
$50.21
-13.1%
$2.07 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.84 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $104.34 (above our primary estimate by 236%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $85.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples