EXPO
Exponent, Inc.
$62.10
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.9% above fair value
You pay
$62.10
Bear
$31.87
Fair
$39.84
Bull
$47.81
Bear
$31.87
-48.7%
$2.07 × 12x P/E
Fair
$39.84
-35.8%
$2.07 × 15x P/E
Bull
$47.81
-23.0%
$2.07 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.84 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $104.34 (above our primary estimate by 236%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples