EXPGY
Experian plc
$36.57
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.6% above fair value
You pay
$36.57
Bear
$24.67
Fair
$30.83
Bull
$37.00
Bear
$24.67
-32.5%
$1.91 × 13x P/E
Fair
$30.83
-15.7%
$1.91 × 16x P/E
Bull
$37.00
+1.2%
$1.91 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.2x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.91, the base-case value is $30.83 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 80% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples