EXPGY
Experian plc
$37.56
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.3% above fair value
You pay
$39.03
Bear
$21.19
Fair
$26.49
Bull
$31.79
Bear
$21.19
-45.7%
$1.64 × 13x P/E
Fair
$26.49
-32.1%
$1.64 × 16x P/E
Bull
$31.79
-18.6%
$1.64 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.2x
1.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.8x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.64, the base-case value is $26.49 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 80% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples