EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$178.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.5% above fair value
You pay
$178.58
Bear
$108.36
Fair
$125.33
Bull
$140.03
Bear
$108.36
-39.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$125.33
-29.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$140.03
-21.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.0%
vs 5.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $160.00 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $125.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $160.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions