EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$196.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.7% above fair value
You pay
$196.43
Bear
$96.10
Fair
$111.15
Bull
$124.19
Bear
$96.10
-51.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$111.15
-43.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$124.19
-36.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
27.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.2%
vs 5.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$179.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $111.15 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $179.43 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions