EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$158.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.7% above fair value
You pay
$158.48
Bear
$104.06
Fair
$120.36
Bull
$134.48
Bear
$104.06
-34.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$120.36
-24.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$134.48
-15.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
22.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $143.44 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.36 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions