EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$192.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.3% above fair value
You pay
$192.60
Bear
$95.51
Fair
$110.47
Bull
$123.43
Bear
$95.51
-50.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$110.47
-42.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$123.43
-35.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.1%
vs 5.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$169.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $110.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $169.83 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions