EXEL
Exelixis, Inc.
$55.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.3% above fair value
You pay
$55.65
Bear
$44.96
Fair
$54.92
Bull
$64.03
Bear
$44.96
-19.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$54.92
-1.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$64.03
+15.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
17.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.0%
vs 7.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.38 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.92 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions