EXEL
Exelixis, Inc.
$50.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.1% below fair value
You pay
$50.15
Bear
$43.60
Fair
$52.29
Bull
$60.10
Bear
$43.60
-13.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$52.29
+4.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.10
+19.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.33 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.29 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions