EXEL
Exelixis, Inc.
$64.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.2% below fair value
You pay
$64.53
Bear
$50.76
Fair
$65.98
Bull
$80.71
Bear
$50.76
-21.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$65.98
+2.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$80.71
+25.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.1%
vs 9.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$52.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $65.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $52.33 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions