EXEL
Exelixis, Inc.
$58.02
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.1% below fair value
You pay
$58.02
Bear
$48.25
Fair
$60.48
Bull
$71.92
Bear
$48.25
-16.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$60.48
+4.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$71.92
+24.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.6%
vs 8.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$51.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $60.48 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions