EXC
Exelon Corporation
$43.93
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.2% above fair value
You pay
$43.93
Bear
$38.36
Fair
$43.84
Bull
$49.32
Bear
$38.36
-12.7%
$2.74 × 14x P/E
Fair
$43.84
-0.2%
$2.74 × 16x P/E
Bull
$49.32
+12.3%
$2.74 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.74$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$48.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.74, the base-case value is $43.84 per share. DDM cross-check: $38.47.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples