EXC
Exelon Corporation
$42.60
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.8% below fair value
You pay
$42.60
Bear
$38.36
Fair
$43.84
Bull
$49.32
Bear
$38.36
-10.0%
$2.74 × 14x P/E
Fair
$43.84
+2.9%
$2.74 × 16x P/E
Bull
$49.32
+15.8%
$2.74 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.74$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$48.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.74, the base-case value is $43.84 per share. DDM cross-check: $38.47.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples