EXC
Exelon Corporation
$47.05
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.7% above fair value
You pay
$47.05
Bear
$39.69
Fair
$45.36
Bull
$51.03
Bear
$39.69
-15.6%
$2.74 × 14x P/E
Fair
$45.36
-3.6%
$2.74 × 16x P/E
Bull
$51.03
+8.5%
$2.74 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.91 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.36 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $31.42 (below our primary estimate by 28%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples