EVTC
EVERTEC, Inc.
$30.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.9% below fair value
You pay
$30.27
Bear
$19.13
Fair
$33.98
Bull
$49.65
Bear
$19.13
-36.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.98
+12.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$49.65
+64.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.3%
vs 12.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.50 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.98 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions