EVRG
Evergy, Inc.
$83.15
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.0% above fair value
You pay
$83.15
Bear
$51.24
Fair
$58.56
Bull
$65.88
Bear
$51.24
-38.4%
$3.66 × 14x P/E
Fair
$58.56
-29.6%
$3.66 × 16x P/E
Bull
$65.88
-20.8%
$3.66 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.66$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$88.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.66, the base-case value is $58.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $71.76.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $71.76 (above our primary estimate by 23%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $88.20 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples