EVR
Evercore Inc.
$346.12
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.5% above fair value
You pay
$346.12
Bear
$225.44
Fair
$322.06
Bull
$418.68
Bear
$225.44
-34.9%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.88x TBV
Fair
$322.06
-7.0%
ROTCE 25.0% → 3.46x TBV
Bull
$418.68
+21.0%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.06x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.56x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $382.67 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $322.06 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.52 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly