EVR
Evercore Inc.
$341.54
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.1% below fair value
You pay
$341.54
Bear
$244.22
Fair
$348.89
Bull
$453.57
Bear
$244.22
-28.5%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.88x TBV
Fair
$348.89
+2.2%
ROTCE 25.0% → 3.47x TBV
Bull
$453.57
+32.8%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.06x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.46x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $490.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $348.89 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.55 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $490.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly