EVR Evercore Inc.
$341.54
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 2.1% below fair value

You pay $341.54
Bear $244.22
Fair $348.89
Bull $453.57
Bear $244.22 -28.5% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.88x TBV
Fair $348.89 +2.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.47x TBV
Bull $453.57 +32.8% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.06x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 7.46x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $490.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $348.89 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.55 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $490.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly