EVR
Evercore Inc.
$266.75
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.6% below fair value
You pay
$266.75
Bear
$211.30
Fair
$301.86
Bull
$392.42
Bear
$211.30
-20.8%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.86x TBV
Fair
$301.86
+13.2%
ROTCE 25.0% → 2.44x TBV
Bull
$392.42
+47.1%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.02x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
33.4%
12.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.83x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$290.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
With ROTCE of 33.4% vs. 12.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.44x on $45.78 tangible book, implying $301.86 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.62.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.62 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly