EVER
EverQuote, Inc.
$24.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.6% below fair value
You pay
$24.83
Bear
$36.59
Fair
$54.72
Bull
$74.51
Bear
$36.59
+47.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$54.72
+120.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$74.51
+200.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.7%
vs 14.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.75 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $22.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 176% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions