EVER EverQuote, Inc.
$26.11
Platform & Compounding FCF 75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 58.6% below fair value

You pay $26.11
Bear $42.12
Fair $63.03
Bull $85.86
Bear $42.12 +61.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $63.03 +141.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $85.86 +228.8% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 11.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 1.4% vs 14.2% base

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (13 analysts) $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 125%

Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $63.03 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 125% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions