EVCM
EverCommerce Inc.
$7.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.4% below fair value
You pay
$7.92
Bear
$8.10
Fair
$11.22
Bull
$14.19
Bear
$8.10
+2.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.22
+41.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$14.19
+79.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.1%
vs 8.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$12.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.22 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 162% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions