ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
$86.47
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 71.7% above fair value
You pay
$86.47
Bear
$44.06
Fair
$50.36
Bull
$56.65
Bear
$44.06
-49.0%
$2.35 × 15x P/E
Fair
$50.36
-41.8%
$2.35 × 17x P/E
Bull
$56.65
-34.5%
$2.35 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.21 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.36 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 69%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $74.21 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples