ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
$85.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 123.3% above fair value
You pay
$85.43
Bear
$33.47
Fair
$38.26
Bull
$43.04
Bear
$33.47
-60.8%
$2.24 × 15x P/E
Fair
$38.26
-55.2%
$2.24 × 17x P/E
Bull
$43.04
-49.6%
$2.24 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.1x
2.24$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
38.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$85.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.24, the base-case value is $38.26 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 61%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $85.94 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples