ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
$62.38
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.9% above fair value
You pay
$62.38
Bear
$43.02
Fair
$49.17
Bull
$55.31
Bear
$43.02
-31.0%
$2.35 × 15x P/E
Fair
$49.17
-21.2%
$2.35 × 17x P/E
Bull
$55.31
-11.3%
$2.35 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.24 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.17 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 69%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.24 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples