ETD Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.
$23.47
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 41.2% below fair value

You pay $23.47
Bear $34.94
Fair $39.94
Bull $44.93
Bear $34.94 +48.9% $2.50 × 14x P/E
Fair $39.94 +70.2% $2.50 × 16x P/E
Bull $44.93 +91.4% $2.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.4x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (10 analysts) $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 82%

Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.50, the base-case value is $39.94 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 60%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 283% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples