ETD Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.
$19.74
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 36.9% below fair value

You pay $19.74
Bear $27.36
Fair $31.27
Bull $35.18
Bear $27.36 +38.6% $2.07 × 14x P/E
Fair $31.27 +58.4% $2.07 × 16x P/E
Bull $35.18 +78.2% $2.07 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.27 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 90% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples