ET
Energy Transfer LP
$20.25
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.0% below fair value
You pay
$20.25
Bear
$16.20
Fair
$20.25
Bull
$24.30
Bear
$16.20
-20.0%
$1.35 × 12x P/E
Fair
$20.25
+0.0%
$1.35 × 15x P/E
Bull
$24.30
+20.0%
$1.35 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.35$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$24.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.35, the base-case value is $20.25 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 100% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples