ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
$755.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 135.8% above fair value
You pay
$755.43
Bear
$228.45
Fair
$320.39
Bull
$413.57
Bear
$228.45
-69.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$320.39
-57.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$413.57
-45.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
55.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.6%
vs 11.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$817.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
61%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $320.39 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $817.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions