ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
$767.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 122.2% above fair value
You pay
$767.82
Bear
$246.33
Fair
$345.58
Bull
$446.16
Bear
$246.33
-67.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$345.58
-55.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$446.16
-41.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
60.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $531.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $345.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $531.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions