ESAB ESAB Corporation
$91.83
Platform & Compounding FCF 50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 56.3% above fair value

You pay $91.83
Bear $41.04
Fair $58.76
Bull $75.03
Bear $41.04 -55.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $58.76 -36.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $75.03 -18.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 34.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.76 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $141.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions