ESAB
ESAB Corporation
$91.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 56.3% above fair value
You pay
$91.83
Bear
$41.04
Fair
$58.76
Bull
$75.03
Bear
$41.04
-55.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$58.76
-36.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$75.03
-18.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
34.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.76 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $141.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions