ES
Eversource Energy
$73.05
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.6% below fair value
You pay
$73.05
Bear
$64.32
Fair
$73.50
Bull
$82.69
Bear
$64.32
-12.0%
$4.56 × 14x P/E
Fair
$73.50
+0.6%
$4.56 × 16x P/E
Bull
$82.69
+13.2%
$4.56 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.14 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.50 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $90.06 (above our primary estimate by 23%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples