EQT
EQT Corporation
$54.07
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 282.7% above fair value
You pay
$54.07
Bear
$1.16
Fair
$14.13
Bull
$31.42
Bear
$1.16
-97.9%
FCF $1052M × 8x
Fair
$14.13
-73.9%
FCF $1502M × 11x
Bull
$31.42
-41.9%
FCF $1953M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$66.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
79%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $14.13 per share. Range: $1.16 (bear) to $31.42 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -98%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $66.25 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential