AlphaMadera

EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.

$30.66

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 18.9% below fair value

You pay $30.66

Bear $31.37

Fair $37.81

Bull $44.25

Bear $31.37 +2.3% $1.88 FFO × 18x

Fair $37.81 +23.3% $1.88 FFO × 22x

Bull $44.25 +44.3% $1.88 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

22.1x

FFO per Share

1.88$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.88) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (22 analysts) $36.75

Divergence from AlphaVal 3%

Summary

At $1.88 FFO/share with a 22x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $37.81 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $29.06.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify