EPAC Enerpac Tool Group Corp.
$34.52
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 18.5% above fair value

You pay $34.52
Bear $23.32
Fair $29.14
Bull $34.97
Bear $23.32 -32.5% $1.77 × 12x P/E
Fair $29.14 -15.6% $1.77 × 15x P/E
Bull $34.97 +1.3% $1.77 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.14 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $37.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples