EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
$138.47
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 37.6% above fair value
You pay
$138.47
Bear
$44.74
Fair
$100.61
Bull
$175.11
Bear
$44.74
-67.7%
FCF $2750M × 8x
Fair
$100.61
-27.3%
FCF $3929M × 11x
Bull
$175.11
+26.5%
FCF $5108M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $154.25 from 66 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.61 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -77%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $154.25 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential