EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
$141.22
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.4% above fair value
You pay
$141.22
Bear
$43.80
Fair
$98.50
Bull
$171.43
Bear
$43.80
-69.0%
FCF $2750M × 8x
Fair
$98.50
-30.3%
FCF $3929M × 11x
Bull
$171.43
+21.4%
FCF $5108M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $148.21 from 66 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.50 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -77%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $148.21 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential