EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
$158.01
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 137.9% above fair value
You pay
$158.01
Bear
$29.12
Fair
$66.41
Bull
$116.13
Bear
$29.12
-81.6%
FCF $2536M × 8x
Fair
$66.41
-58.0%
FCF $3622M × 11x
Bull
$116.13
-26.5%
FCF $4709M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (66 analysts)
$164.07
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $66.41 per share. Range: $29.12 (bear) to $116.13 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -82%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $164.07 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential