EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
$144.96
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 92.5% above fair value
You pay
$144.96
Bear
$33.72
Fair
$75.30
Bull
$130.75
Bear
$33.72
-76.7%
FCF $2871M × 8x
Fair
$75.30
-48.1%
FCF $4102M × 11x
Bull
$130.75
-9.8%
FCF $5332M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (66 analysts)
$159.85
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $75.30 per share. Range: $33.72 (bear) to $130.75 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -77%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $159.85 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential