ENVA
Enova International, Inc.
$182.59
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.7% above fair value
You pay
$182.59
Bear
$115.44
Fair
$164.91
Bull
$214.39
Bear
$115.44
-36.8%
ROTCE 20.0% → 2.17x TBV
Fair
$164.91
-9.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 2.85x TBV
Bull
$214.39
+17.4%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.53x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
29.3%
11.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (11.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.31x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$246.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
With ROTCE of 29.3% vs. 11.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.85x on $42.32 tangible book, implying $164.91 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $246.60 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly