ENSG
The Ensign Group, Inc.
$169.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.7% above fair value
You pay
$169.11
Bear
$66.26
Fair
$150.11
Bull
$245.96
Bear
$66.26
-60.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$150.11
-11.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$245.96
+45.4%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
40.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.3%
vs 16.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $218.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $150.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $218.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions