ENSG
The Ensign Group, Inc.
$173.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.4% above fair value
You pay
$173.26
Bear
$61.11
Fair
$137.03
Bull
$223.82
Bear
$61.11
-64.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$137.03
-20.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$223.82
+29.2%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
40.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.3%
vs 16.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$215.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $137.03 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $215.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions