ENS EnerSys
$178.12
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 44.6% above fair value

You pay $178.12
Bear $107.80
Fair $123.20
Bull $138.60
Bear $107.80 -39.5% $7.70 × 14x P/E
Fair $123.20 -30.8% $7.70 × 16x P/E
Bull $138.60 -22.2% $7.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
7.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.1x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (16 analysts) $265.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.70, the base-case value is $123.20 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $265.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples