ENS
EnerSys
$227.95
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.5% above fair value
You pay
$227.95
Bear
$147.15
Fair
$168.18
Bull
$189.19
Bear
$147.15
-35.4%
$8.49 × 14x P/E
Fair
$168.18
-26.2%
$8.49 × 16x P/E
Bull
$189.19
-17.0%
$8.49 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $265.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $168.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $265.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples