ENR
Energizer Holdings, Inc.
$21.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.0% above fair value
You pay
$21.85
Bear
$10.61
Fair
$10.61
Bull
$16.44
Bear
$10.61
-51.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$10.61
-51.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$16.44
-24.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.3%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.20 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $22.20 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions