ENGQF
Engie S.A.
$31.17
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.4% below fair value
You pay
$31.17
Bear
$30.79
Fair
$35.19
Bull
$39.59
Bear
$30.79
-1.2%
$1.98 × 16x P/E
Fair
$35.19
+12.9%
$1.98 × 18x P/E
Bull
$39.59
+27.0%
$1.98 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.7x
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.98, the base-case value is $35.19 per share. DDM cross-check: $244.51.
Warnings
The company pays out 276% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $244.51 (above our primary estimate by 595%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1373 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples