ENGQF
Engie S.A.
$32.24
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.4% below fair value
You pay
$32.24
Bear
$31.48
Fair
$35.98
Bull
$40.48
Bear
$31.48
-2.3%
$2.03 × 16x P/E
Fair
$35.98
+11.6%
$2.03 × 18x P/E
Bull
$40.48
+25.6%
$2.03 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.03, the base-case value is $35.98 per share. DDM cross-check: $244.51.
Warnings
The company pays out 270% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $244.51 (above our primary estimate by 580%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1628 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples