ENGQF
Engie S.A.
$25.98
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.7% below fair value
You pay
$25.98
Bear
$26.33
Fair
$30.09
Bull
$33.85
Bear
$26.33
+1.3%
$1.70 × 16x P/E
Fair
$30.09
+15.8%
$1.70 × 18x P/E
Bull
$33.85
+30.3%
$1.70 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.7x
1.7$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.70, the base-case value is $30.09 per share. DDM cross-check: $280.59.
Warnings
The company pays out 283% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $280.59 (above our primary estimate by 832%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1234 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples