EME
EMCOR Group, Inc.
$765.41
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 94.3% above fair value
You pay
$765.41
Bear
$308.61
Fair
$394.02
Bull
$479.43
Bear
$308.61
-59.7%
$13.31 × 14x + net cash
Fair
$394.02
-48.5%
$13.31 × 18x + net cash
Bull
$479.43
-37.4%
$13.31 × 22x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($13.31)
Implied Market Multiple
57.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $987.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $394.02 per share.
Warnings
Recent profits ($28.19/share) are 112% above the mid-cycle average ($13.31). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.
Price-to-book value of 29.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $987.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing