ELV
Elevance Health Inc.
$394.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.6% above fair value
You pay
$394.43
Bear
$251.20
Fair
$314.00
Bull
$376.80
Bear
$251.20
-36.3%
$25.12 × 10x P/E
Fair
$314.00
-20.4%
$25.12 × 12x P/E
Bull
$376.80
-4.5%
$25.12 × 15x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
12.5x
25.12$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$444.06
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $25.12, the base-case value is $314.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $559.12.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $559.12 (above our primary estimate by 78%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $444.06 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples