ELS
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.
$61.17
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.4% below fair value
You pay
$61.17
Bear
$69.31
Fair
$81.97
Bull
$94.62
Bear
$69.31
+13.3%
$3.09 FFO × 18x
Fair
$81.97
+34.0%
$3.09 FFO × 21x
Bull
$94.62
+54.7%
$3.09 FFO × 25x
Adjust Assumptions
21.2x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.09) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$65.22
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
At $3.09 FFO/share with a 21x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $81.97 per share. Dividend yield: 3.5%. DDM cross-check: $120.04.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $120.04 (46% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.22 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify