ELS
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.
$62.42
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.5% below fair value
You pay
$62.42
Bear
$68.99
Fair
$81.59
Bull
$94.19
Bear
$68.99
+10.5%
$3.07 FFO × 18x
Fair
$81.59
+30.7%
$3.07 FFO × 21x
Bull
$94.19
+50.9%
$3.07 FFO × 25x
Adjust Assumptions
21.2x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.07) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$66.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
At $3.07 FFO/share with a 21x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $81.59 per share. Dividend yield: 3.4%. DDM cross-check: $120.04.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $120.04 (47% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify