ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia
$13.97
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.1% below fair value
You pay
$13.97
Bear
$39.50
Fair
$45.14
Bull
$50.78
Bear
$39.50
+182.7%
$2.82 × 14x P/E
Fair
$45.14
+223.1%
$2.82 × 16x P/E
Bull
$50.78
+263.5%
$2.82 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.82$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.82, the base-case value is $45.14 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1981 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples