EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
$82.13
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.7% above fair value
You pay
$82.13
Bear
$61.64
Fair
$74.85
Bull
$88.06
Bear
$61.64
-24.9%
$3.79 × 14x P/E
Fair
$74.85
-8.9%
$3.79 × 17x P/E
Bull
$88.06
+7.2%
$3.79 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $99.00 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $99.00 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples