EIPAF
Eni S.p.A.
$29.95
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.5% below fair value
You pay
$29.95
Bear
$26.64
Fair
$45.75
Bull
$68.81
Bear
$26.64
-11.0%
FCF $8114M × 12x
Fair
$45.75
+52.8%
FCF $9546M × 16x
Bull
$68.81
+129.8%
FCF $10978M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.2x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $45.75 per share. Range: $26.64 (bear) to $68.81 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1198 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential