EIPAF
Eni S.p.A.
$27.80
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.4% below fair value
You pay
$27.80
Bear
$27.63
Fair
$47.44
Bull
$71.35
Bear
$27.63
-0.6%
FCF $8413M × 12x
Fair
$47.44
+70.6%
FCF $9898M × 16x
Bull
$71.35
+156.7%
FCF $11383M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $47.44 per share. Range: $27.63 (bear) to $71.35 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1611 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential