EFX
Equifax Inc.
$164.04
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.5% above fair value
You pay
$164.04
Bear
$99.80
Fair
$124.76
Bull
$149.70
Bear
$99.80
-39.2%
$5.38 × 12x P/E
Fair
$124.76
-23.9%
$5.38 × 15x P/E
Bull
$149.70
-8.7%
$5.38 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $227.60 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $124.76 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $134.71 (above our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $227.60 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples