EFX
Equifax Inc.
$169.31
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 112.2% above fair value
You pay
$169.31
Bear
$63.84
Fair
$79.80
Bull
$95.76
Bear
$63.84
-62.3%
$5.32 × 12x P/E
Fair
$79.80
-52.9%
$5.32 × 15x P/E
Bull
$95.76
-43.4%
$5.32 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.32$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$216.92
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.32, the base-case value is $79.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $216.19.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $216.19 (above our primary estimate by 171%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $216.92 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples