EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services Corp
$60.83
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.1% below fair value
You pay
$60.83
Bear
$48.85
Fair
$77.12
Bull
$94.08
Bear
$48.85
-19.7%
ROTCE 9.4% → 1.15x TBV
Fair
$77.12
+26.8%
ROTCE 12.6% → 1.81x TBV
Bull
$94.08
+54.7%
ROTCE 14.5% → 2.21x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.39x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.12 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly