EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services Corp
$65.87
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.3% below fair value
You pay
$65.87
Bear
$49.25
Fair
$77.76
Bull
$94.87
Bear
$49.25
-25.2%
ROTCE 9.4% → 1.16x TBV
Fair
$77.76
+18.1%
ROTCE 12.6% → 1.83x TBV
Bull
$94.87
+44.0%
ROTCE 14.5% → 2.23x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.51x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.76 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly