EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc.
$38.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 89.5% below fair value
You pay
$38.97
Bear
$173.46
Fair
$371.79
Bull
$640.37
Bear
$173.46
+345.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$371.79
+854.0%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$640.37
+1543.2%
30% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.3%
vs 23.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $371.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 993% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions