EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc.
$36.04
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.5% below fair value
You pay
$36.04
Bear
$147.83
Fair
$314.71
Bull
$539.17
Bear
$147.83
+310.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$314.71
+773.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$539.17
+1396.0%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
7.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $314.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 903% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions