EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.
$59.51
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 16.7% above fair value

You pay $59.51
Bear $42.00
Fair $51.00
Bull $60.00
Bear $42.00 -29.4% $3.00 × 14x P/E
Fair $51.00 -14.3% $3.00 × 17x P/E
Bull $60.00 +0.8% $3.00 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
3.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (24 analysts) $56.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.00, the base-case value is $51.00 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples