EDU
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.
$61.15
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.9% above fair value
You pay
$61.15
Bear
$42.00
Fair
$51.00
Bull
$60.00
Bear
$42.00
-31.3%
$3.00 × 14x P/E
Fair
$51.00
-16.6%
$3.00 × 17x P/E
Bull
$60.00
-1.9%
$3.00 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
3.0$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$56.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.00, the base-case value is $51.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples