ECVT
Ecovyst Inc.
$10.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.4% above fair value
You pay
$10.01
Bear
$7.31
Fair
$9.77
Bull
$12.05
Bear
$7.31
-26.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$9.77
-2.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$12.05
+20.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
18.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.1%
vs 7.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $9.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions