ECVT
Ecovyst Inc.
$12.94
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.9% above fair value
You pay
$12.94
Bear
$6.39
Fair
$8.63
Bull
$10.70
Bear
$6.39
-50.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$8.63
-33.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$10.70
-17.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.7%
vs 7.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.67 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.63 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions